Gold XAU/USD Price forecast 2023

 XAU/USD GOLD Weekly Elliott wave analysis :

Gold Elliott wave analysis on a weekly chart started near the price of $1046. we can see five impulse sub-waves inside the 1st wave.

Wave 2 unfolded as an ABC flat correction. Here wave 2 is a Deep correction closed at $1166

Wave 3 as usual easily visible on the chart as its personality. It is less time-consuming and fast.3rd wave finished at $2033

Wave 4 is shown as abc correction finished at $1615. we can see a bull rally from $1615 which is the "X" wave of the 4th wave or new 5th wave impulse. This impulse wave high is $2081

Let's go to the Daily Chart for a detailed analysis of the X wave or 5th wave.

Five Sub-waves counting from $1616. I have labeled high $2081 as (III)rd wave. See the personality of this wave is a big candle and Gap . which gives me confidence of 3rd wave.

Now. either we are is Vth wave or complex correction of IVth wave.

Why 95% of Traders fail in trading ?

95% of traders failed due to a lack of concentration on their goal.

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DXY "C" Wave Price Forecast

 DXY Elliottwave Analysis :

abc wave appear on DXY .

From 2nd Feb 2023 DXY has started as "a" wave in Zig-Zag upto the 105.500

Then "b" wave unfolded as Inverted flate.I am labeling 103.400 is the end of sub-wave c.

Now "c" wave towards the 105/106.... is started and we will follow the rules of impulse wave as "c" wave has always five impulse.

Thank You....

ETH/USD 4th Wave ABCDE

 ETH/USD Elliottwave Cycle

Self explanatory chart.

AUD/NZD Big Picture - Monthly Outlook

AUD/NZD Monthly Elliottwave Chart :

AUD/NZD is at 1.09656 on 12th Feb 2023 

1st wave: Go back to the Year 2011, 1st impulse is quite fast and furious. Sometimes we see a personality like a spring bounce and it is one of them.

2nd wave: It is a textbook zig-zag correction and corrected 61.8% of 1st wave.

3rd wave: As usual any one of the three impulses is extended and 3rd wave is most of the time extended. Here 3rd wave is 2.236% of 1st wave.

As per the alternation rules 2nd wave was dip and simple , 4th wave may shallow and complex 

4th wave :We can see how time eating in the 4th wave as made WXY complex correction in Y 2015 to 2022

5th wave : 

Till we have completed 1st sub-wave of the 5th wave and 2nd wave correction is unfolding . we may see in the coming days trend resumes its downtrend.

Wave 5 extension in the Gold (XAU/USD) that made traders rich.

Gold Elliott wave proposed Road Map:

In the previous post, said Gold XAU/USD Weekly Outlook 3rd Jan 2023

Bears will get active below 1893 for the Target of 1871/1849 Bulls will get active between 1893-1910 for the Target of 1945

Gold is trading below 1893 and it is heavily in Bear grip. I am giving Propose Road-Map for Gold as below chart.

You can see in the chart 5th wave is extended and it is a Fibonacci 138.2%(0-3)The beauty of the extended 5th wave is after the extended 5th wave price falls rapidly upto the 2nd wave of the 5th wave which comes near 1775

So I am given the target of the fall is up to 1775. then I have forecast inverted flat correction up to 1844 with a low of 1749.

One more leg from 1844 to 1664 will be the final wave. Here levels may vary here and there but I am trying to tell you the psychology of traders once you think the uptrend, will fall, once you are convinced the downtrend, will go up.

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DXY ,Gold, SPX500 and Bitcoin overview for 7th Feb 2023

Dollar Index (DXY) Elliott Wave :

On a 15min time frame of DXY, from 100.800 DXY is in a correction of a prior downtrend.
let's see the 15 min chart,

103.775 to 104 where may 3rd wave or c wave end. If the price holds near the trendline around 103 then we may see again upward rally as the 5th wave.

Below trendline downtrend may see.

Gold Elliott wave Analysis:

Gold is in a "abc"  inverted flat pattern on a 15 min chart . The personality of fall is only happening in the "c" wave so buying at any level is not advisable till close above 1900 on a daily/weekly base.

1882 to 1898 may face resistance and below 1865 for 1849. 

S&P500 1H Elliottwave :

ABC or WXY pattern in a retracement of the prior leg is still in progress. Price staying above 4040 is a bullish momentum intake, below 4040 we will re-count the waves.

Bitcoin 2H Elliottwave :

Fibonacci retracement of Prior wave 23.6-38.2% is @ 22400-21200

If the price comes in this zone with three wave structure then it is a sign of uptrend strength intake.

Below 21200 bears may get active. 

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Nifty50 forecast 2023

 Nifty50 Elliottwave Complex Correction :

On Higher Timeframe, Nifty50 is in 4th wave complex correction as shown on chart.

ABC or WXY correction is unfolding. where X or B wave brocken starting of the A wave 18600 level.

Wave 1 and 2 are mentioned on a chart. Wave 2 is 38.2% corrected wave 1. Let's zoom down the impulse wave.

If the price stays below 18200 then we may see an impulse downtrend 3rd wave towards17000/16000

If the price break 18200 then we have to re-count the wave.

Bitcoin : Impulse or Correction

 BTC/USD Elliott wave chart:

As shown in the chart I have labeled Bitcoin waves from the prior low 15450. Wave 2 is deep and simple so I am expecting wave 4 to be shallow and complex.

Forecast 4th wave :

Fibonacci 23.6% is @22400

Fibonacci 38.2% is @21250

If the price comes in this area with three wave move then we will consider it as a part of the correction of the prior 3 waves. If we see any five waves down move from 24260 then wave 123 is considered as ABC & it will be a downside impulse & a downtrend may intake. 

So the next move of Bitcoin as three or five waves will decide the Bull or Bear in Crypto.

Support between 21250-22400

Resistance: 24260

S&P 500 WXY Wave Structure forecast 4th Feb 2023

S&P500 WXY Correction wave analysis :

Prior low 3495 is our starting of the wave counting. See the below Elliott wave 4H chart of the SPX500 Index.

WXY correction is unfolding. W wave has "abc" sub-waves in which "c" wave has 5th wave as expanding ending diagonal.

After the completion of five waves, a sharp fall as an "X" wave appeared. Correction of X wave is 61.8%(W) 

Y wave as abc is unfolding. "c" wave of Y wave is started from 3883. C wave has always five waves as shown in the chart. 

Conclusion :

Buy momentum is intake above 4040 (1st wave's top) for the Target of 4280.

If the price falls below 4040 then we have to re-count the wave.

Andre Agassi: The Challenge

     

          Those interested in tennis may remember former American tennis champion, Andre Agassi. He won eight Grand Slam titles during his career and married German tennis star Steffi Graf after divorcing Hollywood actress Brooke Shields.

          In his autobiography, he narrates a very interesting fact about his rivalry with German tennis star Boris Becker. Agassi was beaten by Becker in three straight matches and it was because the way Boris Becker served was almost impossible to resist. Baker's service was coming very fast but it was also difficult to understand where it would go. A big challenge for Agassi was how to solve this problem. For this, he started watching several video cassettes of Boris Becker. He saw these cassettes from not just one but many different angles. After studying it very closely, Agassi noticed a special and distinctive habit of Baker. He noticed that the baker's tongue stuck out every time he served. The funny thing was that every time the direction of the baker's service and the direction of the tongue were the same! Agassi watched many of his videos over and over again. Each time the baker's tongue told him what was going on in his mind and which side he was going to place the service on. In fact, this was happening outside Baker's knowledge, sticking out the tongue was Baker's subconscious habit.

Once Agassi realized this, it was not too difficult for Agassi to break Becker's serve, but Agassi continued to make deliberate mistakes to avoid leaving Boris Becker in doubt as he wanted to hide the fact that he was breaking his opponent's serve. had understood.

Agassi then won the next nine matches in a row. Boris Becker did not realize until the end how this sudden change had come about.

            After Boris Baker retired, Agassi told Boris about this fact, and Boris nearly fell off his chair!

Boris said, every time after losing a match with you, I used to tell my wife that I think this man is reading my mind... but I didn't know how!!

          Regarding this phenomenon, Agassi writes that however great the competition and how strong the competitor is, we must face it without hesitation. There is a way somewhere but to find that way we need to study intelligently till we find the way. You must be confident that you will win and victory is yours!!!

(From the autobiography 'The Open' by famous tennis player Andre Agassi)

How it is related to trading? Trading is a mass psychology where the crowd is involved and they have a habit of repeating again and again. So we have to read the crowds' subconscious habits by studying the chart. Who decodes the code could be Andre Agassi. Analyzing & Execute the wave is the key to success in trading.

Gold XAU/USD Weekly Outlook 3rd Jan 2023

Gold Weekly Outlook on 3rd Feb 2023:

We have discussed in Gold Price Forecast 2023 : Gold Elliottwave Counting from Y 1833 where we are in the big picture.

From Low 1615 gold is in a Bull structure, If we consider new impulse waves then the chart as below.

Wave III is continuing or it is completed in 1950.

from 1950 I am expecting a triangle or complex correction as shown below where 1910  & 1922 is demand area.

When the price comes in this area, it may bounce towards 1935-1945 

If the price trades below 1900 then we may see the following ABC pattern in which C wave is 123.6 to 138.2 of wave A.

Bears will get active below 1893 for the Target of 1871/1849

Bulls will get active between 1893-1910 for the Target of 1945

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AUD/USD extended 5th Wave forecast

 AUD/USD Forecast 2023

We start the counting waves from Corona pandemic low in March,2020 at 0.55

Wave (I) is sharp 0.55 to 0.80. As per the Elliott  Rules any one of the three impulses is extended.It may possible that wave (I) is extended or it's not. 

Wave (II) is 70.7% correction of wave (I). So Wave II is deeper and Zig-Zag correction.  

If Wave (I) is extended then Wave (III) may normal. If we consider normal Wave (III) 100% of wave(I) then levels come $0.86. This is the edge for investor & Positional Traders.

If you know how far something is going to go, the game is in your hands.That is the beauty of Elliott wave. 

Let's We counting the waves from starting of (III) wave.

 Wave 1,2,3,4,5 is sub-waves of Higher degree wave(II).

Wave 2 = Fibonacci 70.7%(1) , Deep and Sharp Zig-Zag Correction.

Wave 3 = 161.8%(1) , Normal wave.

What is normal wave ? 
Fibonacci extension is 161.8 or less then 161.8% is consider as normal wave .

Any one of the three waves is most probably extended.Here wave 1 and 3 is normal so wave 5 may extended.

Wave 4 : Exactly Fibonacci 38.2%(3), Inverted flat correction appear as abc

If 4th wave is inverted flat and 3rd wave is normal then there is a high chance to be extended 5th wave. This formula is Money making in trading.

Next You can see on chart 5th of the 5th as green sub-waves is unfolding. 

(5th) wave  Forecast:

Fibonacci 100%(0-3) @ 0.73050

Fibonacci 123.6%(0-3) @ 0.74760

Fibonacci 138.2%(0-3) @ 0.75760

Fibonacci 161%(0-3) @ 0.77380

All above levels where 5th wave may complete & it may only 1st sub-wave of Higher Degree (III).

So till day we just focus on near target 0.73-0.77 where lower degree wave is going to complete.

Elliottwave analysis of S&P500 : Historical Data from Year 1877

S&P 500 ROAD-MAP Elliott Wave Analysis

Starting from the Year 1877

Contents:

1. 1^st Wave (Y 1877 – 1929)

2. 2^nd Wave (Y 1929 – 1932)

3. 3^rd Wave (Y 1932 – Under Progress.

4. Forecast of Sub-Wave 4^th

S&P500 Index 

Today is 31st  Jan 2023 and I am counting the waves of the S&P500 Index. Let’s start the journey.

I^st wave: Started from a Significant Low of $2.66 in Y 1877. 

We can see five sub-waves in green color and End at $30 in Y 1929 Around 52 Years have taken to develop the 1^st wave. 

II Wave : It is Y1929 to $1932 and Price $30 to $4.71 II wave was deep and sharp, with around 94% retracement of 1^st wave and only 3 years taken to complete. You can imagine which type of panic was created in 1929-1932.

III Wave: It is $4.71 to continue...and Y 1932 to  ??? Is it 100 Years Cycle?

Let’s do detail analysis of this III^rd  Wave.Inside the III^rd  Wave, Five Sub-waves of blue color as 1,2,3,4,5 unfolding.Sub-waves 1,2 and 3 are completed and the 4^th is in progress.

Sub-wave 1: Y 1932 to Y 2000  & Price $4.71 to $1550 We can see five green color mini sub-waves inside the 1^st sub-wave. A total of 68 years have taken to complete the 1^st sub-wave.

Sub-wave 2: Y 2000 to Y 2009 ( Total 9 Years) Price $1550 to $666It has shown flat correction as abc in which “b” wave tends to go up to the start of “a” wave.

We can see in chart 2^nd sub-wave correction exactly ends between Fibonacci 50% to 61.8%

As per the rules of alternation 2^nd sub-wave was simple and deep, we may see 4^th sub-wave as complex and shallow. This is a very important thing to forecast the 4^th sub-wave. We will discuss this later when we will analyze 4^th sub-wave.

Sub-wave 3: Y 2009 to Y 2022 ( Total 13 Years) Price $666 to $4800As usual 3^rd wave personality is easily identified on the chart in any degree. Here extended Sub-wave 3 is exactly 261.8% Fibonacci ratio of 1^st sub-wave. 

Inside Sub-wave 3, Mini sub waves as mentioned in green color also dance to Elliott tunes.Sub-wave 4: Y 2022 to Under Progress & Price $4800 to .... ???

As Human beings, we love to predict the future & Trading is a game where everyone wants to try their luck but few of them succeed.

Why do they fail? The answer is none of them have a broad view of Price sentiment. You should have one complete Road map for Entry  & Exit.

Let’s forecast Sub-wave 4,

Earlier we discussed the rules of an alternation. As 2^nd Subwave was flat and deep so 4^th subwave may be shallow and Sharp.

WXY Double Zig-Zag Sharp Correction is unfolding and we know it may be shallow. So we have a clue that we are in sharp and shallow correction.

What do you mean by shallow correction ?? hmm right question.

Most of the time Shallow correction near Fibonacci 38.2% of the Prior wave. Here 4^th wave maybe 38.2% (Prior to the 3^rd wave).

Let’s check the level.So we have one level where the end of Sub-wave 4^th  correction is $3230Let’s double-check with the inside of the Sub-wave 4^th pattern.WXY pattern is showing on chart. 

From 3478 new impulse or X wave is begun.

If "X" wave then S&P500 may face resistance between 4300-4400 and one more down leg may appear in 2023.If new impulse then it will break the 4300-4400 and we may see new High.

Wait and watch for the next dance step of S&P500 ....

Thank You ...

Gold Price Forecast 2023 : Gold Elliottwave Counting from Y 1833

XAU/USD Elliottwave Analysis 

Starting from Year 1833 

Gold is the oldest currency on the planet. The attraction of human beings toward gold has been going on for many years. Gold never lacks trading volume because small investors, retailers, jewelers, hedge funds, and big banks all trade in this pair. Let’s start the analysis.

Today's date is 29th Jan 2023. Let’s start a detailed analysis from the Year 1833 low around $20

Y 1833 to Y1930 around this 100 Years price is moves $20 to $21 then sudden sharp move in between 1930 to 1933 & Price touched to $34.

3^rd wave in any degree is always steep and you can easily identify. So here one thing is clear that 1930 to 1933 is a 3^rd wave.

Again price range is bound from Y 1933 to Y 1968. Around 65 years price is around $35. Now you can imagine those who invested in gold from 1933 to 1966 are how frustrating years for them. It is definitely 4th wave as a frustrated wave personality.4th wave is most the time-consuming wave to any degree.Elliott has said one of the three impulses is extended.

Y 1968 to 1979 is extended 5th wave.

Price $35 to $890

Wow!! what an investment return in 10 Years.

Now I think you are clever enough to understand the importance of Technical analysis in investment also. You can save your time and time is money.

So here Y 1833 to 1978, Five impulse waves were completed & presented on the chart as Green sub-waves as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v)

These five sub-waves are called the higher degree 1st wave & I label it on the chart as wave (1 ).

So our first higher degree wave (1) from Y 1833 to Y1979 around 146 years & Price $ 20 to $ 890.

After five impulses there is a time for correction as in Elliott’s basic 8-wave pattern.

Now, it is time for ABC Correction.Before starting ABC correction we understand about Zig-Zag Correction. Zig-Zag is a 5-3-5 Pattern as below.

In this pattern, A & C wave has five waves & B wave has three waves or triangle. C wave has always five waves in any correction. In a Zig-Zag correction “B”  wave tends to be well below starting of the A wave or below 61.8% of A wave.

Let’s jump to the chart,

Wave (a)(b)(c) is a correction of sub-waves as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) where as,

Wave (a) : five waves

Wave (b) : three waves

Wave (c) : five waves complete the 5-3-5 structure.

You can see wave (b) is well below the starting point of wave (a).

b wave = Fibonacci retracement 23.6% (a wave).

C wave is truncated. It is completed in Y 1999 at $254.

Which is a sign of the next wave will be powerful.

So our first higher degree wave (2) from Y1979 to Y 1999 around 20 years & Price $ 890 to $ 254.

Wave 2 has shown a 71% price fall. We will consider it a sharp and deep 2nd wave.

Wave (3): Y1999 to continuing

Sub-wave 1,2,3,4,5 of wave(3) is labeled on the chart.

Have you noticed the alternation between sub-waves 2 and 4?

Sub-wave 2 is sharp and shallow whereas subwave 4 is complex and deep.

Subwave 3 is a normal wave because subwave 3 < 161.8%(Sub-wave 1 )

So as per Elliott's rules, any one of the three impulses should be extended. It may sub-wave 5th could be extended.

Sub-wave 5th :

Now you can easily identify that we have completed III wave and complex wave IV . Wave III is nearly 261.8% (wave I)

Wave IV seems completed "abc" correction. It may unfold a triangle or further any complex pattern. It is very difficult to trade in 4th wave. When we are in 4th wave then need extra care as it is complex and confusing. Many professionals also avoid trading in 4th wave or reduce the lot size.

IV wave has abc flat correction. Flat Correction pattern is ABC (3-3-5) as shown in the figure.

In this pattern, A & B wave has three waves & C wave has five waves. C wave has always five waves in any correction. In a flat pattern “B” wave tends to end near starting of the “A” wave.

C wave is completed at Low 1615. There is a possibility that the iv wave is completed or may not. We should analyze the wave that started from the prior low 1615.

From 1615 either abc or new impulse begun. Till we have not confirmed.

If any triangle or complex pattern appear then we will count it as a IV wave.  let's see which pattern going to unfold in coming days.

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