Elliottwave analysis of S&P500 : Historical Data from Year 1877

S&P 500 ROAD-MAP Elliott Wave Analysis

Starting from the Year 1877

Contents:

1. 1^st Wave (Y 1877 – 1929)

2. 2^nd Wave (Y 1929 – 1932)

3. 3^rd Wave (Y 1932 – Under Progress.

4. Forecast of Sub-Wave 4^th

S&P500 Index 

Today is 31st  Jan 2023 and I am counting the waves of the S&P500 Index. Let’s start the journey.

I^st wave: Started from a Significant Low of $2.66 in Y 1877. 

We can see five sub-waves in green color and End at $30 in Y 1929 Around 52 Years have taken to develop the 1^st wave. 

II Wave : It is Y1929 to $1932 and Price $30 to $4.71 II wave was deep and sharp, with around 94% retracement of 1^st wave and only 3 years taken to complete. You can imagine which type of panic was created in 1929-1932.

III Wave: It is $4.71 to continue...and Y 1932 to  ??? Is it 100 Years Cycle?

Let’s do detail analysis of this III^rd  Wave.Inside the III^rd  Wave, Five Sub-waves of blue color as 1,2,3,4,5 unfolding.Sub-waves 1,2 and 3 are completed and the 4^th is in progress.

Sub-wave 1: Y 1932 to Y 2000  & Price $4.71 to $1550 We can see five green color mini sub-waves inside the 1^st sub-wave. A total of 68 years have taken to complete the 1^st sub-wave.

Sub-wave 2: Y 2000 to Y 2009 ( Total 9 Years) Price $1550 to $666It has shown flat correction as abc in which “b” wave tends to go up to the start of “a” wave.

We can see in chart 2^nd sub-wave correction exactly ends between Fibonacci 50% to 61.8%

As per the rules of alternation 2^nd sub-wave was simple and deep, we may see 4^th sub-wave as complex and shallow. This is a very important thing to forecast the 4^th sub-wave. We will discuss this later when we will analyze 4^th sub-wave.

Sub-wave 3: Y 2009 to Y 2022 ( Total 13 Years) Price $666 to $4800As usual 3^rd wave personality is easily identified on the chart in any degree. Here extended Sub-wave 3 is exactly 261.8% Fibonacci ratio of 1^st sub-wave. 

Inside Sub-wave 3, Mini sub waves as mentioned in green color also dance to Elliott tunes.Sub-wave 4: Y 2022 to Under Progress & Price $4800 to .... ???

As Human beings, we love to predict the future & Trading is a game where everyone wants to try their luck but few of them succeed.

Why do they fail? The answer is none of them have a broad view of Price sentiment. You should have one complete Road map for Entry  & Exit.

Let’s forecast Sub-wave 4,

Earlier we discussed the rules of an alternation. As 2^nd Subwave was flat and deep so 4^th subwave may be shallow and Sharp.

WXY Double Zig-Zag Sharp Correction is unfolding and we know it may be shallow. So we have a clue that we are in sharp and shallow correction.

What do you mean by shallow correction ?? hmm right question.

Most of the time Shallow correction near Fibonacci 38.2% of the Prior wave. Here 4^th wave maybe 38.2% (Prior to the 3^rd wave).

Let’s check the level.So we have one level where the end of Sub-wave 4^th  correction is $3230Let’s double-check with the inside of the Sub-wave 4^th pattern.WXY pattern is showing on chart. 

From 3478 new impulse or X wave is begun.

If "X" wave then S&P500 may face resistance between 4300-4400 and one more down leg may appear in 2023.If new impulse then it will break the 4300-4400 and we may see new High.

Wait and watch for the next dance step of S&P500 ....

Thank You ...