Elliottwave analysis of S&P500 : Historical Data from Year 1877

S&P 500 ROAD-MAP Elliott Wave Analysis

Starting from the Year 1877

Contents:

1. 1^st Wave (Y 1877 – 1929)

2. 2^nd Wave (Y 1929 – 1932)

3. 3^rd Wave (Y 1932 – Under Progress.

4. Forecast of Sub-Wave 4^th

S&P500 Index 

Today is 31st  Jan 2023 and I am counting the waves of the S&P500 Index. Let’s start the journey.

I^st wave: Started from a Significant Low of $2.66 in Y 1877. 

We can see five sub-waves in green color and End at $30 in Y 1929 Around 52 Years have taken to develop the 1^st wave. 

II Wave : It is Y1929 to $1932 and Price $30 to $4.71 II wave was deep and sharp, with around 94% retracement of 1^st wave and only 3 years taken to complete. You can imagine which type of panic was created in 1929-1932.

III Wave: It is $4.71 to continue...and Y 1932 to  ??? Is it 100 Years Cycle?

Let’s do detail analysis of this III^rd  Wave.Inside the III^rd  Wave, Five Sub-waves of blue color as 1,2,3,4,5 unfolding.Sub-waves 1,2 and 3 are completed and the 4^th is in progress.

Sub-wave 1: Y 1932 to Y 2000  & Price $4.71 to $1550 We can see five green color mini sub-waves inside the 1^st sub-wave. A total of 68 years have taken to complete the 1^st sub-wave.

Sub-wave 2: Y 2000 to Y 2009 ( Total 9 Years) Price $1550 to $666It has shown flat correction as abc in which “b” wave tends to go up to the start of “a” wave.

We can see in chart 2^nd sub-wave correction exactly ends between Fibonacci 50% to 61.8%

As per the rules of alternation 2^nd sub-wave was simple and deep, we may see 4^th sub-wave as complex and shallow. This is a very important thing to forecast the 4^th sub-wave. We will discuss this later when we will analyze 4^th sub-wave.

Sub-wave 3: Y 2009 to Y 2022 ( Total 13 Years) Price $666 to $4800As usual 3^rd wave personality is easily identified on the chart in any degree. Here extended Sub-wave 3 is exactly 261.8% Fibonacci ratio of 1^st sub-wave. 

Inside Sub-wave 3, Mini sub waves as mentioned in green color also dance to Elliott tunes.Sub-wave 4: Y 2022 to Under Progress & Price $4800 to .... ???

As Human beings, we love to predict the future & Trading is a game where everyone wants to try their luck but few of them succeed.

Why do they fail? The answer is none of them have a broad view of Price sentiment. You should have one complete Road map for Entry  & Exit.

Let’s forecast Sub-wave 4,

Earlier we discussed the rules of an alternation. As 2^nd Subwave was flat and deep so 4^th subwave may be shallow and Sharp.

WXY Double Zig-Zag Sharp Correction is unfolding and we know it may be shallow. So we have a clue that we are in sharp and shallow correction.

What do you mean by shallow correction ?? hmm right question.

Most of the time Shallow correction near Fibonacci 38.2% of the Prior wave. Here 4^th wave maybe 38.2% (Prior to the 3^rd wave).

Let’s check the level.So we have one level where the end of Sub-wave 4^th  correction is $3230Let’s double-check with the inside of the Sub-wave 4^th pattern.WXY pattern is showing on chart. 

From 3478 new impulse or X wave is begun.

If "X" wave then S&P500 may face resistance between 4300-4400 and one more down leg may appear in 2023.If new impulse then it will break the 4300-4400 and we may see new High.

Wait and watch for the next dance step of S&P500 ....

Thank You ...

Gold Price Forecast 2023 : Gold Elliottwave Counting from Y 1833

XAU/USD Elliottwave Analysis 

Starting from Year 1833 

Gold is the oldest currency on the planet. The attraction of human beings toward gold has been going on for many years. Gold never lacks trading volume because small investors, retailers, jewelers, hedge funds, and big banks all trade in this pair. Let’s start the analysis.

Today's date is 29th Jan 2023. Let’s start a detailed analysis from the Year 1833 low around $20

Y 1833 to Y1930 around this 100 Years price is moves $20 to $21 then sudden sharp move in between 1930 to 1933 & Price touched to $34.

3^rd wave in any degree is always steep and you can easily identify. So here one thing is clear that 1930 to 1933 is a 3^rd wave.

Again price range is bound from Y 1933 to Y 1968. Around 65 years price is around $35. Now you can imagine those who invested in gold from 1933 to 1966 are how frustrating years for them. It is definitely 4th wave as a frustrated wave personality.4th wave is most the time-consuming wave to any degree.Elliott has said one of the three impulses is extended.

Y 1968 to 1979 is extended 5th wave.

Price $35 to $890

Wow!! what an investment return in 10 Years.

Now I think you are clever enough to understand the importance of Technical analysis in investment also. You can save your time and time is money.

So here Y 1833 to 1978, Five impulse waves were completed & presented on the chart as Green sub-waves as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v)

These five sub-waves are called the higher degree 1st wave & I label it on the chart as wave (1 ).

So our first higher degree wave (1) from Y 1833 to Y1979 around 146 years & Price $ 20 to $ 890.

After five impulses there is a time for correction as in Elliott’s basic 8-wave pattern.

Now, it is time for ABC Correction.Before starting ABC correction we understand about Zig-Zag Correction. Zig-Zag is a 5-3-5 Pattern as below.

In this pattern, A & C wave has five waves & B wave has three waves or triangle. C wave has always five waves in any correction. In a Zig-Zag correction “B”  wave tends to be well below starting of the A wave or below 61.8% of A wave.

Let’s jump to the chart,

Wave (a)(b)(c) is a correction of sub-waves as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) where as,

Wave (a) : five waves

Wave (b) : three waves

Wave (c) : five waves complete the 5-3-5 structure.

You can see wave (b) is well below the starting point of wave (a).

b wave = Fibonacci retracement 23.6% (a wave).

C wave is truncated. It is completed in Y 1999 at $254.

Which is a sign of the next wave will be powerful.

So our first higher degree wave (2) from Y1979 to Y 1999 around 20 years & Price $ 890 to $ 254.

Wave 2 has shown a 71% price fall. We will consider it a sharp and deep 2nd wave.

Wave (3): Y1999 to continuing

Sub-wave 1,2,3,4,5 of wave(3) is labeled on the chart.

Have you noticed the alternation between sub-waves 2 and 4?

Sub-wave 2 is sharp and shallow whereas subwave 4 is complex and deep.

Subwave 3 is a normal wave because subwave 3 < 161.8%(Sub-wave 1 )

So as per Elliott's rules, any one of the three impulses should be extended. It may sub-wave 5th could be extended.

Sub-wave 5th :

Now you can easily identify that we have completed III wave and complex wave IV . Wave III is nearly 261.8% (wave I)

Wave IV seems completed "abc" correction. It may unfold a triangle or further any complex pattern. It is very difficult to trade in 4th wave. When we are in 4th wave then need extra care as it is complex and confusing. Many professionals also avoid trading in 4th wave or reduce the lot size.

IV wave has abc flat correction. Flat Correction pattern is ABC (3-3-5) as shown in the figure.

In this pattern, A & B wave has three waves & C wave has five waves. C wave has always five waves in any correction. In a flat pattern “B” wave tends to end near starting of the “A” wave.

C wave is completed at Low 1615. There is a possibility that the iv wave is completed or may not. We should analyze the wave that started from the prior low 1615.

From 1615 either abc or new impulse begun. Till we have not confirmed.

If any triangle or complex pattern appear then we will count it as a IV wave.  let's see which pattern going to unfold in coming days.

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